A Backcasting Approach for Anomaly Detection in Time Series Data

44th International Symposium on Forecasting, Dijon, France

Priyanga Dilini Talagala

July 1, 2024

Anomalies in Temporal Data

Dengue Outbreak

Image Credit: https://www.cdc.gov/dengue/images/socialmedia/LVV7_Aedes_aegypti_Adult_Feeding_2022_029.jpg

Weekly Dengue Cases in Ratnapura District, Sri Lanka

Data Source: https://denguedatahub.netlify.app/

Weekly Dengue Cases in Sri Lanka

Weekly Dengue Cases in Sri Lanka

Image Credit: https://www.airforcemedicine.af.mil/portals/1/Images/Graphics/200309-D-HN545-003.png

Daily COVID-19 Confirmed Cases

Outbreak

An occurrence of a disease in a specific geographic area that is significantly higher than the established baselines. This increase can be either sudden or gradual.

Outbreak

An occurrence of a disease in a specific geographic area that is significantly higher than the established baselines. This increase can be either sudden or gradual.

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What is an Anomaly ?

We define an anomaly as an observation that is very unlikely given the backcasted distribution.

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