A Backcasting Approach for Anomaly Detection in Time Series Data

44th International Symposium on Forecasting, Dijon, France

Priyanga Dilini Talagala

July 1, 2024

Anomalies in Temporal Data

Dengue Outbreak

Weekly Dengue Cases in Ratnapura District, Sri Lanka

Data Source: https://denguedatahub.netlify.app/

Weekly Dengue Cases in Sri Lanka

Weekly Dengue Cases in Sri Lanka

Daily COVID-19 Confirmed Cases

Outbreak

An occurrence of a disease in a specific geographic area that is significantly higher than the established baselines. This increase can be either sudden or gradual.

Outbreak

An occurrence of a disease in a specific geographic area that is significantly higher than the established baselines. This increase can be either sudden or gradual.

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What is an Anomaly ?

We define an anomaly as an observation that is very unlikely given the backcasted distribution.